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The review describes the risks to the global economy that may spillover to Russia, covers the main vulnerabilities of the Russian non-financial and financial sectors as well as presents their overall resilience assessment.

Currently, the main global risk is associated with higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates in the US, which may exacerbate credit risks and entail capital flow volatility. For Russia, the significance of this channel of influence has declined amid sanctions and foreign exchange measures enacted in response. It might pose a threat should the problems spread across global commodity markets or financial stability risks arise for Russia’s key trading partners.

Despite the intensification of sanctions’ pressure, the Russian corporate sector in general shows improvements in profitability and debt burden rates owing to the recovery of sales.

In general, the vulnerability landscape in the financial sector has remained unchanged. For the first time, the risk of credit concentration is singled out as a vulnerability, since against the backdrop of active repayment of foreign debt by the largest Russian companies the amount of their financing by Russian banks has notably increased. In its turn, the vulnerability associated with individuals’ investment in foreign instruments is not highlighted among the main ones as it has already materialised due to US sanctions against PJSC SPB Exchange and decreased in relevance as Russians place most of their savings in ruble-denominated deposits and Russian securities.

Vulnerabilities of the Russian financial sector

Assessment of the financial sector’s resilience

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Department responsible for publication: Financial Stability Department
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Last updated on: 24.05.2024