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In Q2-Q3 2023, the Russian economy witnessed a rapid rebound in domestic demand, supported by strong increase in lending activity. The ruble weakened and volatility in the foreign exchange market increased as exporters’ foreign currency earnings declined and demand for imports grew. In order to limit pro‑inflationary risks the Bank of Russia has raised the key rate from 7.5 to 15% per annum since July 2023.

In global markets, high interest rates hinder economic activity (particularly, in Europe) and provoke concerns about potential risks to financial stability of vulnerable sectors. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is an additional factor of global instability.

The Bank of Russia expects that both the real and financial sectors remain resilient in the face of increased interest rates in the medium term. The real sector remains resilient owing to its relatively low debt (as of 1 July 2023, the debt of non-financial companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 50.6% of GDP, the debt of households — 20.4% of GDP, public debt — 16.1% of GDP). A high level of interest margin (4.8% over Q3 2023) and a significant capital buffer in the banking sector will ensure its resilience in case of interest rate risk materialisation and potential external shocks.

The review covers the main vulnerabilities of the Russian non-financial and financial sectors and presents their integral resilience assessment.

Vulnerabilities and resilience of the Russian non-financial sector

Vulnerabilities of the Russian financial sector

Assessment of the financial sector resilience

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Department responsible for publication: Financial Stability Department
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Last updated on: 30.11.2023