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underlying inflation and the extent of concern about the scale of secondary effects that one-off inflation drivers may bring. We can see that one-off inflation

the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will

2027 2028 (actual) Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 9.5 6.5–7.0 4.0–5.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation, average for

at its long end. • Breakeven inflation. Breakeven inflation continued to grow in September amid fears of faster inflation. Breakeven inflation derived from inflation-indexed federal government

given the situation for achieving Foreign currency-denominated assets and precious metals the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank of Russia mainly

as of the end of September after declining in previous months. Simultaneously, inflation expectations of both businesses and households edged down. This also contributed to

meeting, inflation expectations remain considerably higher than the levels observed when inflation was close to 4%. Persistently high inflation expectations hinder the return of inflation

meeting, inflation expectations remain considerably higher than the levels observed when inflation was close to 4%. Persistently high inflation expectations hinder the return of inflation

the Bank of Russia for the coming year, including interval indicators for inflation, the monetary base, money supply, interest rates and changes in international reserves;

policy measures on inflation may also differ by region. Valeria Zvereva (Bank of Russia; HSE University) believes that a stronger response of inflation to monetary