Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: July 2021
(%, Dec to Dec of the previous year)
(% per annum, average for the year)
|CDS spread 5Y in Russia
(b.p., average for the year)
|USD / RUB rate
(RUB per USD, average for the year)
|Neutral key rate
(% per annum)
|5.50||The level of the key rate at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also keeps GDP at its potential|
|2.0||Expected average potential GDP growth rates in 2024 — 2028|
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 25 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
- Inflation: in July, the forecast for 2021 was raised to 5.6% from 4.9% in May. In 2022 — 2023, the inflation is close to the Bank of Russia’s target.
- Key Rate: the average key rate is going to stand at 5.5% per annum in 2021 (5.2% in May). Relative to May, the forecast for 2022 rose by 0.5 p.p. to 6.0% per annum. The forecast for 2023 and beyond remained unchanged at 5.5% per annum.
- GDP: the analysts’ forecast was unchanged compared to May. GDP growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2021. Thereafter, it is forecast to slow down to 2.4% and 2.2% in 2022 — 2023 and 2.0% further on.
- Nominal wages: the forecast is slightly higher. The expected growth for 2021 is 8.0% (7.1% in May). In
2022-2023,the growth rates are to be 6.8% and 6.1%, respectively (6.5% and 6.3% in May).
- CDS spread: as before, analysts expect the country risk to decline. The average
5-yearCDS spread for Russia will shrink from 96 bps in 2021 to about 90 bps in 2022-2023.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: according to analysts’ forecasts, average exchange rate in
2021-2023fall within the range of 72.0 — 73.2 rubles per USD (72.5 — 74.0 in May).
CDS spread 5Y in Russia
USD / RUB rate
Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The next survey will take place from August 25 to August 31, 2021.
|BCS Global Markets||Morgan Stanley||АКРА||ИНГ Банк Евразия||НИФИ Минфина||Сбербанк ЦМИ||Эксперт РА|
|Credit Suisse||Sova Capital||Альфа Банк||ИНП РАН||Райффайзенбанк||Сколково-РЭШ||ЮниКредит банк|
|Goldman Sachs||Telegram-канал MMI||Telegram-канал Твердые цифры VTB Capital||Институт Гайдара||Ренессанс Капитал||ФК Открытие||Barclays|
|J.P. Morgan||UBS AG||ДОМ.РФ||ЛОКО-Инвест||Росбанк||ЦМАКП||ИК РЕГИОН|
|Сбербанк КИБ||ФИНАМ||«Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ|