Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: September 2024*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
7,3 (6,5) |
4,8 (4,5) |
4,0 (4,0) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,0 (7,8) |
5,9 (5,3) |
4,4 (4,2) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,1 (16,8) |
16,1 (15,0) |
11,5 (10,6) |
8,6 (8,0) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,2 |
3,6 |
3,6 (3,2) |
1,7 (1,7) |
1,9 (1,7) |
2,0 (1,8) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 |
3,6 |
3,0 |
2,6 (2,6) |
2,8 (2,8) |
3,0 (3,0) |
3,0 (3,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
16,0 (15,6) |
9,0 (8,3) |
7,0 (6,9) |
6,6 (6,4) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,3 (-1,3) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-0,7 (-0,8) |
-0,6 (-0,7) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
466 |
470 (471) |
478 (477) |
486 (480) |
498 (491) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 |
347 |
379 |
369 (378) |
385 (389) |
397 (398) |
409 (407) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
90,4 (90,1) |
94,4 (95,0) |
96,4 (97,2) |
98,9 (98,9) |
|
| Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 |
99 |
82 |
82 (84) |
80 (80) |
75 (75) |
75 (75) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100 |
98,8 |
102,4 |
106,0 (105,6) |
107,8 (107,3) |
109,8 (109,2) |
112,0 (111,1) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
7,3 (7,3) |
3,0 (3,0) |
2,6 (2,4) |
2,3 (2,3) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
116,5 (116,4) |
120,0 (120,0) |
123,1 (122,9) |
126,0 (125,8) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
170 |
294 |
86 |
101 (93) |
93 (89) |
89 (83) |
89 (84) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (7,5) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(6,0-8,5) |
|||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,6) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,0-2,3) |
|||||||
* In parentheses are the results of the July 2024 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 30 August — 3 September, 2024.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 28 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators and somewhat widened for nominal wages and imports. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 7.3% in 2024 (+0.8 pp compared to the July survey) and to 4.8% in 2025 (+0.3 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2026 and remain at this level further on.
- Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for 2024 is 17.1% per annum (+0.3 pp). It implies that the average key rate in September—December 2024 will amount to 19.0% per annum. Analysts forecast that the key rate will average 16.1% per annum (+1.1 pp) in 2025, 11.5% per annum (+0.9 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (8.6% per annum) is somewhat higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate, which rose to 8.0% per annum (+0.5 pp).
- GDP: Forecast for 2024 has been raised by 0.4 pp to 3.6%. Analysts expect GDP to grow by
1.7-2.0% in2025–2027. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has slightly increased to 1.8% (+0.2 pp). According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.0% (+11.1%, according to the July survey). - Unemployment rate: No changes to forecast. Analysts expect that unemployment will decline to 2.6% in 2024, increase to 2.8% in 2025 and then return to the 2023 level of 3.0%.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth to 16.0% (+0.4 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 9.0% (+0.7 pp) in 2025, to 7.0% (+0.1 pp) in 2026 and to 6.6% (+0.2 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 7.3% in 2024, by 3.0% in 2025, by 2.6% in 2026 and by 2.3% in 2027. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 26.0% higher than in 2021 (25.8% higher, according to the July survey).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect consolidated budget deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2024, followed by a decline to 1.0% of GDP in 2025, to 0.7% of GDP in 2026 and to 0.6% by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Exports of goods and services: Analysts have barely changed their forecast for
2024–2025 and somewhat raised their estimates for2026–2027: $470 billion (-$1 billion) in 2024, $478 billion (+$1 billion) in 2025, $486 billion (+$6 billion) in 2026. The estimate for 2027 is $498 billion (+$7 billion), which is 9% ($52 billion) lower than exports in 2021. - Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have decreased for
2024–2025 and have not changed significantly for the following years: $369 billion (-$9 billion) in 2024, $385 billion (-$4 billion) in 2025, $397 billion (-$1 billion) for 2026. The estimate for the end of the forecast horizon is $409 billion (+$2 billion), which is 8% ($29 billion) higher than imports in 2021. - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is 90.4 rubles per dollar (it implies that the average exchange rate in September—December 2024 will amount to 91.0 rubles per dollar), 94.4 rubles per dollar for 2025, 96.4 rubles per dollar for 2026 and 98.9 rubles per dollar for 2027 (the ruble is
0.6-0.8% stronger compared to the July survey). - Brent oil price: Forecast has barely changed. According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $82 per barrel in 2024 (it implies that the average price in September—December 2024 will amount to 80 rubles per barrel). The price will then decrease to $80 per barrel in 2025 and to $75 per barrel in
2026–2027.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Brent oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 11 to 15 October, 2024.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Астра Управление активами | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Альфа Банк | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | ЮниКредит банк |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | Т-Инвестиции |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
Was this page useful?
Last updated on: 04.09.2024