Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: March 2023*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт / оценка)** |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 11,9 | 6,0 (6,0) |
4,1 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 | 7,5 (7,5) |
6,8 (6,8) |
6,1 (6,0) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,6 | -2,1 (-2,5) |
-1,1 (-1,5) |
1,5 (1,2) |
1,5 (1,5) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 3,7 (3,9) |
4,1 (4,3) |
4,0 (4,2) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 12,6 (12,4) |
7,6 (7,0) |
6,5 (6,8) |
5,9 (6,0) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 | -2,2 | -3,0 | -2,0 | -1,0 | |
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 628 |
501 (493) |
514 (500) |
523 (502) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 346 | 360 (360) |
376 (374) |
400 (390) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,7 | 67,4 | 73,6 (72,0) |
75,3 (73,8) |
77,9 (75,6) |
|
| Цена на нефть марки Urals (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 | 76 | 59 | 60 | 60 | |
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100 | 97,9 (97,5) |
96,9 (96,0) |
98,3 (97,2) |
99,8 (98,7) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата*** (%, г/г) |
4,5 | 0,6 (0,4) |
1,0 (0,9) |
2,3 (2,0) |
1,7 (1,9) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100 | 100,6 (100,4) |
101,7 (101,4) |
104,0 (103,5) |
105,8 (105,4) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 6,0 (6,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||
| Центр. тенденция |
(5,2-6,8) |
|||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2026 — 2030 годов. |
|||
| Центр. тенденция |
(0,6-2,0) |
|||||
* In parentheses are the results of the February 2023 survey.
** In 2022: CPI, key rate, GDP, unemployment rate, nominal wages, exchange rate, Urals oil price and real wages are actual values; exports and imports are Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimates; consolidated budget balance is estimate from the survey. There are also GDP, unemployment rate, nominal and real wages estimates from the February survey.
*** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and CPI.
Survey Dates: 2 — 6 March, 2023.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 24 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for most indicators almost remained unchanged or continued to narrow (see shaded areas in the charts). The ranges for unemployment, exports, consolidated budget balance and the oil price are wide over the entire forecast horizon.
- Inflation: The median inflation forecasts for
2023-2025 is unchanged. Analysts expect inflation to slow to 6.0% in 2023, return to near 4% in 2024 and remain on the target of the Bank of Russia thereafter. - Key rate: Analysts have not changed their expectations for the key rate path in
2023-2024 from the February survey. The consensus forecast for the median key rate for 2025 slightly rose by 0.1 p.p. to 6.1% per annum. The median estimate for a neutral key rate is unchanged at 6.0% per annum. - GDP: Analysts improved the GDP forecast for 2023 from −1.5% to −1.1% and raised the growth forecast for 2024 to 1.5% (+0.3 p.p.). The 2025 forecast is in line with the February survey (+1.5%). According to analysts, the change in GDP in 2025 to 2021 will be −0.2% (-1.3% in the February survey). The estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.5%.
- Unemployment rate: no significant change. According to the median forecast, analysts expect the unemployment to remain near 4% in
2023-2025. - Nominal and real wages: The growth forecast for 2023 increased by 0.6 p.p. (compared to the February survey) to 7.6%. Forecasts for subsequent years were slightly lowered to 6.5% (-0.3 p.p.) and 5.9% (-0.1 p.p.) respectively. Analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 1.0% in 2023, by 2.3% in 2024 and by 1.7% in 2025. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be by 5.8% higher than in 2021.
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect a consolidated budget deficit over the entire forecast horizon. Their estimate of the consolidated budget deficit in 2022 is 2.2% of GDP, the forecasts for
2023-2025 are 3.0% of GDP, 2.0% of GDP and 1.0% of GDP respectively. - Exports of goods and services: Expectations for
2023-2025 are again revised upward (2023: $501 billion (+8 billion compared to the February survey), 2024: $514 billion (+$14 billion), 2025: $523 billion (+$21 billion). As a result, according to analysts, the value of exports in 2025 will be by 4.9% lower than in 2021 (in the February survey — by 8.7% lower). - Imports of goods and services: Analysts remained unchanged their 2023 import value forecast and slightly increased their forecasts for
2024-2025 compared with the February survey. Imports are expected to be $360 billion in 2023, $376 billion in 2024 (+$2 billion), $400 billion in 2025 (+$10 billion). Thus, analysts predict that the value of imports in 2025 will be 5.3% higher than in 2021 (2.6% higher in the February survey). - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a slightly weaker ruble compared to the February survey over the entire forecast horizon with a gradual weakening trend similar to the last survey. Analysts’ forecast for 2023 — 73.6 rubles per dollar, for 2024 — 75.3 rubles per dollar, for 2025 — 77.9 rubles per dollar.
- Urals oil price: According to the median forecast, in
2023-2025 Urals oil will cost around $60 per barrel on average.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Consolidated budget balance
(% of GDP for the respective year)
Urals oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will take place from 14 to 18 April, 2023.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | ИНП РАН | ПФ Капитал | Сбербанк КИБ | ЮниКредит банк |
| Credit Suisse | ДОМ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Райффайзенбанк | Сбербанк ЦМИ | |
| АКРА | ИБ Синара | ЛОКО-Инвест | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал MMI | |
| Альфа Банк | ИК РЕГИОН | НИФИ Минфина | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Промсвязьбанк | Россельхозбанк | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | |
| ФК Открытие | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ | ЦМАКП | Эксперт РА | ФИНАМ |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 09.03.2023