Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: February 2025*
2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт/оценка***) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
6,8 (6,0) |
4,6 (4,5) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,5 |
9,2 (8,2) |
5,4 (5,0) |
4,3 (4,2) |
|
Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
20,5 (21,3) |
15,0 (14,6) |
10,4 (10,4) |
|
ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,2 |
3,6 |
3,9 (3,8) |
1,6 (1,5) |
1,7 (1,7) |
2,0 (1,9) |
|
Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 |
3,6 |
3,0 |
2,4 (2,4) |
2,6 (2,6) |
2,7 (2,8) |
2,9 (3,0) |
|
Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
17,6 (17,5) |
12,5 (11,6) |
8,0 (7,6) |
7,1 (7,1) |
|
Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,7 (-1,7) |
-1,2 (-1,1) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
466 |
460 |
458 (475) |
463 (480) |
472 (482) |
|
Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
379 |
375 |
380 (382) |
390 (395) |
399 (401) |
|
Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
104,7 (102,0) |
108,8 (104,0) |
110,4 (106,6) |
|
Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 |
99 |
82 |
80 |
75 (75) |
75 (75) |
72 (72) |
|
Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,8 |
102,4 |
106,3 (106,2) |
108,0 (107,8) |
109,8 (109,8) |
111,9 (111,7) |
|
Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
8,4 (8,4) |
3,3 (3,1) |
2,5 (2,7) |
2,5 (2,9) |
|
Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
117,7 (117,6) |
121,3 (121,3) |
124,3 (124,7) |
127,4 (128,3) |
|
Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
85 |
77 (90) |
75 (94) |
73 (90) |
|
Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
Центр. тенденция |
(6,4-9,0) |
|||||||
Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,9 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,3) |
* In parentheses are the results of the December 2024 survey.
** In 2024: CPI, key rate, exchange rate and Brent oil price are actual values; exports, imports and trade balance are Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimates; GDP, unemployment rate, nominal wages and consolidated budget balance are the estimates from the survey.
*** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 31 January – 4 February, 2025.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast for 2025 has been raised to 6.8% (+0.8 pp compared to the December survey), the change to the 2026 forecast is less significant: 4.6% (+0.1 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2027.
- Key rate: Analysts have lowered the average key rate forecast for 2025 and somewhat raised the forecast for 2026. The median forecast is 20.5% per annum (-0.8 pp) in 2025 and 15.0% per annum (+0.4 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (10.4% per annum) remains significantly higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum).
- GDP: Forecasts for 2025 and 2027 have been raised somewhat, the forecast for 2026 has not changed: 1.6% (+0.1 pp), 1.7% and 2.0% (+0.1 pp) respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has also slightly increased to 1.9% (+0.1 pp). According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +11.9% (+11.7%, according to the December survey).
- Unemployment rate: Analysts have somewhat lowered their forecast for
2026–2027 (by 0.1 pp). They expect that unemployment will rise to 2.6% in 2025, to 2.7% in 2026 and to 2.9% by the end of the forecast horizon. - Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth almost over the entire horizon. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.5% (+0.9 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.0% (+0.4 pp) in 2026 and to 7.1% by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 3.3% in 2025 and by 2.5% annually in 2026 and 2027. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.4% higher than in 2021 (28.3% higher, according to the December survey).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect consolidated budget deficit in 2025 to reach 1.2% of GDP (1.1%, according to the December survey). Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have remained at 1.0% of GDP.
- Exports of goods and services: Analysts have significantly lowered their forecasts to $458 billion (-$17 billion) in 2025, to $463 billion (-$17 billion) in 2026, to $472 billion (-$10 billion) in 2027. This is 14% ($78 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been lowered but less significantly than the forecast for exports: $380 billion (-$2 billion) in 2025, $390 billion (-$5 billion) in 2026, $399 billion (-$2 billion) in 2027. This is 6% ($22 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts have raised their forecast over the entire forecast horizon. They expect the average exchange rate to reach 104.7 rubles per dollar in 2025, 108.8 rubles per dollar in 2026 and 110.4 rubles per dollar in 2027 (the ruble in
2025–2027 is 2.6–4.6% weaker compared to the December survey). - Brent oil price: No changes. According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $75 per barrel in
2025–2026. The price will then decrease to $72 per barrel in 2027.
CPI
Key rate
GDP
GDP
Unemployment rate
Nominal wages
Real wages
Consolidated budget balance
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Trade balance
USD / RUB rate
Brent oil price
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 7 to 11 March 2025.
Survey participants
Bloomberg Economics | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции |