Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: April 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
7,1 (7,0) |
4,8 (4,8) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
9,5 (9,4) |
5,6 (5,5) |
4,3 (4,3) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
20,0 (20,1) |
14,3 (14,3) |
9,7 (10,0) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
1,6 (1,7) |
1,7 (1,8) |
2,0 (2,0) |
|
| Уровень безработицы2 (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
3,9 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,5 (2,5) |
2,8 (2,7) |
2,9 (2,9) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
18,3 |
12,3 (12,6) |
7,9 (8,1) |
7,0 (7,0) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-1,5 (-1,2) |
-1,1 (-1,0) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
475 |
453 (458) |
460 (464) |
472 (475) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
381 |
380 (382) |
388 (393) |
399 (402) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
95,2 (98,5) |
102,4 (104,0) |
106,7 (107,0) |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения3 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
60 (65) |
60 (65) |
60 (65) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка4 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,6 (12,8) |
9,1 (9,1) |
5,4 (5,7) |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,1 (106,9) |
108,7 (108,6) |
110,6 (110,5) |
112,5 (112,5) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата5 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,1 |
2,9 (3,2) |
2,3 (2,5) |
2,4 (2,7) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
118,4 |
121,9 (122,2) |
124,8 (125,0) |
127,3 (127,3) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
76 (73) |
70 (73) |
73 (73) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,4) |
|||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,3) |
|||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the March 2025 survey.
2 The March 2025 results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the year-end unemployment rate (as the average of the year-end values for the reporting and the previous year).
3 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
5 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates:
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 26 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators, the ranges for exports, imports, trade balance, and oil price for tax purposes have widened. At the same time, the ranges for GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, and USD/RUB exchange rate are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: No significant changes. Inflation forecast for 2025 has been raised to 7.1% (+0.1 pp compared to the March survey). Forecasts for
2026–2027 are unchanged. Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2027. - Key rate: No significant changes – expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and 2027 have slightly decreased. The median forecast is 20.0% per annum (-0.1 pp) in 2025, and 14.3% per annum in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 9.7% per annum (-0.3 pp). It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate, calculated based on analysts’ forecasts, is 12.6% (-0.2 pp) in 2025, 9.1% in 2026, and 5.4% (-0.3 pp) in 2027.
- GDP: Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 0.1 pp, the forecast for 2027 has not changed: 1.6%, 1.7%, and 2.0%, respectively. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.5%.
- Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to remain at 2.5% in 2025, rise to 2.8% (+0.1 pp) in 2026 and to 2.9% by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Nominal wages: Analysts slightly lowered their forecast for nominal wage growth in
2025–2026. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.3% (-0.3 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 7.9% (-0.2 pp) in 2026, and to 7.0% by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 2.9% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.3% higher than in 2021. - Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit in 2025 and 2026 — 1.5% of GDP in 2025 (up by 0.3 pp) and 1.1% of GDP in 2026 (up by 0.1 pp). The forecast for 2027 has remained unchanged at 1.0% of GDP.
- Exports of goods and services: Forecasts have been lowered slightly: $453 billion (-$5 billion) in 2025, $460 billion (-$4 billion) in 2026, and $472 billion (-$3 billion) in 2027. This is 14% ($78 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been lowered slightly: $380 billion (-$2 billion) in 2025, $388 billion (-$5 billion) in 2026, $399 billion (-$3 billion) in 2027. This is 6% ($22 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon. They expect the average exchange rate to reach 95.2 rubles per dollar in 2025, 102.4 rubles per dollar in 2026, and 106.7 rubles per dollar in 2027 (the ruble in
2025–2027 is 0.3–3.4% stronger compared to the March survey). - Oil price for tax purposes: Forecasts have been lowered — in
2025–2027 the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will be $60 per barrel (-$5 per barrel compared to the March survey).
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 23 to 27 May 2025.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 16.04.2025