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inflation expectations (in Russia)? What does
such diversity imply for the inflation dynamic (in Russia)?
There is an extensive literature on studying heterogeneity of inflation
2
10.07.2025
overestimate future inflation and are highly reactive to short-term inflation spikes—indicating that their expectations are weakly anchored. Firms also tend to overestimate inflation, though
2025
Expected inflation (one year) Expected inflation (one year), three-month average
Expected inflation (five years) Observed inflation
Observed inflation, three-month average Annual inflation
Sources: InFOM,
4
01.07.2025
Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment
Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment
June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November
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25.06.2025
Inflation expectations go down but remain elevated
25 June 2025
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In June 2025, estimated inflation expected by households in a
6
18.06.2025
Annual inflation also continued to decrease in May, but was still considerably above the target. The Bank of Russia is determined to bring inflation back
trend inflation estimates and modified core inflation.
2 - CPI data source: Rosstat. For details of methodology, see Deryugina et al (2015). Evaluating the underlying inflation
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hold near 4% thereafter
2
Inflation expectations remain elevated
Household’s inflation expectations, observed inflation and inflation, YoY
Households’ inflation expectations fell to 9.1
9
upcoming meetings
1
Inflation
is close to 4%
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In September, annual inflation stood at 3.7%. Inflation processes are
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1
Inflation slowdown
is still overshooting the forecast
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In January, annual inflation declined to 2.4%. The inflation slowdown