Annual inflation goes up to 6% in January 2026
The increase was associated with a temporary acceleration of price growth in January. Seasonally adjusted price growth was primarily fuelled by one-off factors, i.e. the rises in VAT, the car recycling fee, and excise rates, as well as the indexation of regulated tariffs.
The pass-through of the VAT increase to prices sped up the growth in prices for a wide range of goods and services, including housing and utility services. The faster-than-usual rise in excise rates resulted in more expensive petrol, tobacco, and alcoholic beverages. The one-off indexation pushed up utility tariffs, public transport fares, as well as prices for communication and cultural services.
Inflation was further fuelled by the increase in fruit and vegetable prices, after their rather modest uptick in November–December 2025. Their overall increase over the past three months was less notable than usual for this time of year. Egg prices demonstrated the same trend.
Given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will fall to 4.5–5.5% in 2026, as forecast by the Bank of Russia. From 2027 onwards, annual inflation will be close to 4%.
More details are available in the new issue of the information and analytical commentary Inflation in Russia.