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future changes in inflation expectations as well as the probability of the materialisation of fiscal risks. • Breakeven inflation. In February, average breakeven inflation was close

pace in 2025. Monetary policy helped temper inflation, while enabling businesses to develop and manufacture necessary goods. Inflation decelerated as of the end of 2025,

is a consequence of lower inflation. Further decline in market rates will depend on a contraction in actual inflation and inflation expectations, that is, how

at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, and the analysis of risks posed by external

given the situation for achieving Foreign currency-denominated assets and precious metals the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank of Russia mainly

bond market rates for all maturities decreased by the end of February. Inflation expectations of households and businesses declined, while those of the market remained

The inflation item shows core inflation (the core PCE price index) for the US, core inflation (core HICP) for the euro area, and core inflation

points of the discussion. CONTENTS ECONOMIC SITUATION AND INFLATION ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 MONETARY CONDITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 INFLATION RISKS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 CONCLUSIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY AND THE

months, returning to the 2025 average. Households’ inflation expectations remained unchanged in January 2026. Analysts adjusted their inflation forecasts for 2026–2027 slightly upwards. GDP

The scenarios assume that, subsequently, government bond yields will recover gradually and inflation will return to the target. The updated scenarios also include assumptions to