On 20 March 2026, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 15.00% per annum. The economy is approaching a balanced growth path. In February, price growth predictably decelerated after a temporary acceleration in January. The Bank of Russia estimates that the underlying measures of current price growth remain in the range of 4–5% in annualised terms. However, uncertainty regarding the external environment has increased considerably.
The Bank of Russia will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, the dynamics of inflation expectations, and the analysis of risks posed by external and domestic conditions. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.5–5.5% in 2026. Underlying inflation will be close to 4% in 2026 H2. In 2027 and beyond, annual inflation will stay on target.
In January – February, the current seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 10.2% in annualised terms compared to 4.4% in 2025 Q4. The similar indicator of core inflation averaged 7.0% after 5.0% in the previous quarter. As of 16 March 2026, annual inflation stood at 5.9%.
In February, the current price growth slowed significantly as the effects of one-off factors seen at the beginning of the year had faded away. Excluding these factors, underlying inflation is generally assessed at 4–5% in annualised terms.
Inflation expectations have changed little since February. If they remain elevated, this may impede a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is decreasing. High-frequency data and business surveys indicate slower growth in economic activity in early 2026. Consumer demand cooled after its sharp rise in late 2025, which was mainly driven by expectations of higher VAT and recycling fee. Business sentiment also implies more moderate domestic demand.
The labour market tightness is gradually decreasing. According to surveys, the percentage of enterprises experiencing labour shortages continues to shrink and is now at its lowest level since mid-2023. Companies are planning more moderate wage indexations in 2026 compared to 2023–2025. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at historical lows, and wage growth is still outpacing the growth in labour productivity.
Monetary conditions have eased somewhat but remain tight. Interest rates have declined in most segments of the financial market. Non-price bank lending conditions are still tight.
Lending activity was moderate in early 2026. Households continue to demonstrate a high propensity to save.
Proinflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones on the
The Bank of Russia takes into account the announced parameters of fiscal policy. On the
On 1 April 2026, the Bank of Russia releases the Summary of the Key Rate Discussion.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors holds its next key rate meeting on 24 April 2026. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board decision and the medium-term forecast are to be published at 13.30 Moscow time.
The reference to the Press Service is mandatory if you intend to use this material.
20.03.2026 13.30.00