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9 17.6 11.2 16.6 14.4 expectations3 p, SA Business Climate Index p, SA Aug25 2.1 0.7 -0.03 4.

s Business Climate Index came in at 1.8 p in September vs 2.0 p in the previous month. Current output and demand estimates

Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 100 bp to 17.00% p.a. On 12 September 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors

7 p 74 balance of responses (p, SA) (August 2025) Construction 18.8 p 57 Industrial production 13.4 p 46 Services 19.6 p

key rate will average 18.8–19.6% p.a. in 2025 and 12.0–13.0% p.a. in 2026. After the inflation rate

deposit markets with exogenous switching costs of depositors 19 7 Bibliography Belleflamme, P. and Peitz, M. (2015). Industrial organization: markets and strategies. Cambridge University Press.

will average 17.5% p.a. in 2024, 17.0–20.0% p.a. in 2025 and 12.0–13.0% p.a. in 2026

1.5 1.0–2.0 1.5–2.5 Key rate, % p.a., yearly average 10.6 9.9 12.5–14.5 7.