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11 8–13 8–13 – on organisations 22.8 6–11 8–13 8–13 – on households, including 23.0 5–10 8–13 8

decision. CONTENTS ECONOMIC SITUATION AND INFLATION ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 MONETARY CONDITIONS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 INFLATION RISKS .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 CONCLUSIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY AND THE KEY RATE DECISION

to recent data. The unemployment rate is at its record low (2.8% in December (seasonally adjusted), and the level of tightness in the labour

in the banking sector as a whole may reach Р2.3—2.8 trillion in 2024. Lending will also continue to grow, but at a

exceeding 0.8% per day. In 2023 Q4, the major portion of loans (71%) was given at rates of 0.5–0.8% per day.

YoY 8.0 8.0 4.9 9.5 8.8 10.1 SMEs % YoY 18.8 18.8 17.4 24.8 29.8

8 -6.1 -1.4 1.4 1.5 Consumption (C), % -9.8 -4.9 -1.4 1.4 1.5 Aggregate investments, % -9.8

average 2030–2032 OFZ-IN 7.6 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.3 8.0 8.1 8.1 average Analysts, % Survey by the

6 4.3 8.5 8.4 of which: services without housing and utility services 38.6 6.8 7.7 8.4 13.6

Bank 316 6. Bank GPB (JSC) 354 7. Bank IPB (JSC) 600 8. JSC Post Bank 650 9. PJSC Norvik Bank 902 10. VTB Bank