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inflation will start to decelerate only in spring, but this is simply the base effect of low inflation in 2022 H1. We predict that inflation

in yields on 7Y+ OFZ. This implies that market participants are expecting inflation to fall over a long-term horizon. In October, OFZ yields grew by

rate will help bring inflation down to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and anchor it at 4% further on. Inflation, inflation expectations and Bank

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Inflation,* % Inflation, % YoY Expected inflation, % Expected inflation, respondents with savings, % Key rate, % per annum * Month-on-month, seasonally

year, inflation may rise above the Bank of Russia’s current forecast. Table1. Inflation and its components Figure 1. Price rises corresponding to an inflation

into consideration when making decisions on monetary policy to analyse and forecast inflation, identify the key trends in economic development across Russia in general and

there are no signs of a steady deceleration of inflation and a decrease in inflation expectations. Inflation has been persistently deviating from the 4% target

the properties of inflation expectations in Russia* • Study of the influence of inflation expectations on inflation and decision-making by economic agents* • Inflation risks of budget

2024 2025 2026 (actual) Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 11.9 7.0-7.5 4.0-4.5 4.0 4.0 Inflation, average for the

to limit the upward deviation of inflation from target and return it to 4% in 2024. The return of inflation to target and its further