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into consideration when making
decisions on monetary policy to analyse and forecast inflation, identify the key
trends in economic development across Russia in general and
carbon footprints. In the initial stress period, inflation and inflation expectations
significantly increase due to (1) rising foreign inflation due to the carbon tax implemented
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27.02.2024
covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision. Among
core inflation from the expected
level.
This paper highlights that national inflation rates have been persistently higher than
expected since 2021 Q2. Therefore, inflation forecasts
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impulse components for all Russian regions. The effect of fiscal impulse on inflation in Russian regions is heterogeneous and negatively correlated with the level of
loans December 2023 7
The obtained estimates assume unchanged inflation expectations. A rise in
households’ inflation expectations makes it more likely that households will request
annual inflation stood at 7.3%1 as of 29 January.
Table 1. Inflation and its components Figure 1. Price rises corresponding to an inflation
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19.02.2024
the loan request probability in relation to the interest rate with given inflation expectations. It takes a significant change in interest rates for the interest
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16.02.2024
to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy.
The return of inflation to target in 2024 and its further stabilisation close to 4% assume
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economy passed the peak of current inflation, that is, seasonally adjusted monthly inflation, in autumn 2023.
As regards annual inflation, which is price growth over