Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia

¹ In parentheses are the results of the December 2025 survey.
² CPI, key rate, exchange rate and oil price for tax purposes are actual values, others are the estimates from the survey.
³ Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
⁴ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
⁵ The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 30 January – 3 February, 2026.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 30 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, unemployment rate, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.

• Inflation: Analysts have raised the forecasts for 2026 to 5.3% (+0.2 pp compared to the December survey). Analysts expect that inflation in 2027–2028 will be close to the target.
• Key rate: Expectations for the average key rate in 2026 are unchanged at 14.1% per annum. Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have been raised by 0.1 pp to 10.4% per annum and 9.0% per annum, respectively. The forecast for the end of the horizon remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 8.6% (-0.4 pp) in 2026, 5.8% (-0.3 pp) in 2027 and 4.5% (-0.1 pp) in 2028.
• GDP: Growth forecast is unchanged at 1.1% for 2026, 1.7% for 2027 and 1.8% for 2028. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has risen by 0.2 pp to 2.0%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth in 2028 to the 2021 level will total +13.3% (1.9% per year on average).
• Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment rate to rise to 2.4% in 2026, to 2.6%(-0.1 pp) in 2027 and to 2.7% (-0.3 pp) in 2028, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) figures.
• Nominal wages: Analysts have not changed their forecast for nominal wage growth significantly. They expect nominal wage growth to slow down to 8.2% in 2026, to 7.5% (+0.5 pp) in 2027 and to 6.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2028. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 2.7% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 34.1% higher than in 2021 (4.9% per year on average).
• Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect slightly higher consolidated budget deficit in 2026 – 2.5% of GDP (up by 0.3 pp). Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 are almost unchanged – 1.5% of GDP and 1.4% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp), respectively.
• Exports of goods and services: No significant changes: $446 billion (-$4 billion) in 2026 and $468 billion in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $482 billion (-$2 billion). This is 12% ($68 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
• Imports of goods and services: Forecasts are unchanged: $396 billion in 2026 and $405 billion in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $421 billion. This is 12% ($44 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
• USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble compared to the December survey over the entire forecast horizon. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 85.0 rubles per dollar in 2026, 94.5 rubles per dollar in 2027 and 98.9 rubles per dollar in 2028. The ruble is expected to be 3.1–5.8% stronger compared to the December survey.
• Oil price for tax purposes: Forecast has been lowered to $50 per barrel in 2026 and to $56 per barrel in 2027. Analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will rise to $60 per barrel by the end of forecast horizon.