Estimated actual external debt payments of non-financial organisations in 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q1

According to macrostatistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial organisations, including principal and interest, will in 2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1 total $19.1 and $11.4 billion respectively.

Macroeconomic statistics show that a considerable amount of payments traditionally falls on December ($11.8 billion); however, in practice, a sizeable amount of such payments tends to be carried over or restructured.

Stripping out intragroup payments, net payments may total up to $16.5 billion in 2019 Q4 and $11.4 billion in 2020 Q1. The balance is made up of intragroup payments (calculated for the top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market).

The Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies suggests that the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments in 2019 is as follows: 0% – October, 8% – November, 63% – December; in 2020: 0% – January, February and March. Adjusted for intragroup payments, major companies’ payments in 2019 Q4 will be 17% lower than in 2018 Q4, while 2020 Q1 payments are expected to be 16% higher than in 2019 Q1.

Schedule of external debt payments, 40 largest non-financial corporate borrowers, 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q1*

Indicators 2019 2020
October November December January February March
Total due payments, millions of US dollars 1,396 1,840 3,902 818 1,994 2,617
Net payments, millions of US dollars 1,396 1,697 1,439 818 1,994 2,617
Share of intragroup funding 0% 8% 63% 0% 0% 0%

* The Q4 indicators have been adjusted for the updated data from contracts registered by authorised banks in accordance with Bank of Russia Instruction No. 181-I, dated 16 August 2017, ‘On the Procedure for Residents and Non-residents to Submit Documents and Information Confirming Foreign Exchange Transactions to Authorised Banks, on Single Accounting and Reporting Forms Related to Foreign Exchange Transactions, and the Procedure and Timeframes for Their Submission’.

18 October 2019

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