Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2017 H2

According to statistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, will in Q3 and Q4 total $16 billion and $25 billion respectively.

Once intragroup payments* are deducted, which are very likely to be extended or refinanced, net payments in the quarters under study will total $12 billion and $23.6 billion respectively, essentially consistent with the same periods of previous years. Macrostatistics show that a fourth quarter (mainly December) is traditionally the time of the bulk of repayments, and experience suggests that a substantial proportion of these will be extended.

According to a BoR survey of major companies, the share of intragroup loans in total repayments of major borrowers is estimated at 46% for July, 16% for August, 60% for September, 0.2% for October, 29% for November and 26% for December 2017. Adjusted for intragroup funding, major corporations’ payments in 2017 Q3-4 are predicted to be fairly even and average about $1.5 billion a month, which is a third less than in the same period last year.

Schedule of external debt payments – 30 largest non-financial corporate borrowers, 2017 H2**

Indicators 2017
July August September October November December
Amounts payable, million rubles USA 1,539 1,207 5,197 1,610 2,492 2,745
Net amounts payable, million rubles USA 831 1,016 2,080 1,609 1,780 2,034
Share of intragroup funding 46% 16% 60% 0% 29% 26%
 
* Intragroup payments are calculated for the 30 largest Russian corporate borrowers in the external market.
** Q3 indicators are adjusted to recognise transaction specification data available from banks authorised to conduct foreign currency transactions between residents and non-residents.

19 July 2017

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