Balance of Payments - Estimate

March 2026

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for March 2026 and revised the estimate for January-February 2026 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of 18 May, 2026.

The current account surplus in March 2026 amounted to $10.6 billion (the updated value of February 2026 – $1.5 billion, March 2025 – $8.0 billion). The increase of the indicator year-on-year was equally driven by the rise in trade balance surplus and the decrease in the deficit in primary and secondary income.

The current account surplus in Q1 2026 declined to $12.2 billion from $18.4 billion in the corresponding period of 2025 mainly owing to the growth of imports of goods.

Key Aggregates in March 2026:

• the trade balance surplus amounted to $14.0 billion (the updated value of February 2026 - $5.1 billion surplus; March 2025 - $12.3 billion surplus). The rise in the trade balance surplus year-on-year was influenced by outstripping exports of goods growth compared to imports;
• the negative balance on services remained virtually unchanged and amounted to $2.7 billion (February 2026 - $2.5 billion; March 2025 - $2.8 billion): both exports and imports of services increased proportionally. The deficit rise compared to February 2026 was caused by the imports growth, including transport and other business services;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income reduced to $0.6 billion (February 2026 - $1.1 billion; March 2025 - $1.4 billion) owing to the rise in income receivable compared to February 2026;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) rose by $11.1 billion (February 2026: $2.1 billion, March 2025: $5.1 billion) primarily due to a temporary increase in non-residents’ indebtedness on trade settlements amid the significant exports growth with unchanged payment lags;
• external liabilities declined by $2.2 billion (February 2026: $0.9 billion growth, March 2025: $0.7 billion growth) owing to, among other things, the other investment drop;
• reserve assets decreased by $1.2 billion (by $2.5 billion in February 2026).

Key Aggregates in Q1 2026:

• the trade balance surplus reduced to $25.3 billion from $30.7 billion in Q1 2025 due to the more significant imports growth compared to exports. Exports dynamics was influenced by non-energy exports rise;
• the deficit in the balance on services grew to $8.7 billion from $7.6 billion in Q1 2025 primarily due to the services imports increase, influenced by the rise in Russians’ spending during foreign trips and the provision of other services by non-residents, including construction services. Services exports rose due to the travel and construction services;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income decreased to $4.4 billion ($4.7 billion a year earlier), the main contribution was made by the investment income deficit fall due to the growth in income receivable;
• external assets (excluding reserve assets) increased by $15.6 billion (by $20.1 billion in Q1 2025);
• external liabilities growth slowed down to $1.1 billion ($3.3 billion a year earlier) mainly in the form of other investment;
• reserve assets declined by $6.7 billion (by $5.9 billion a year earlier).

Current account components, in billions of US dollars