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given the situation for achieving
Foreign currency-denominated assets and precious metals the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank of Russia
mainly
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1% per annum), respectively.
All NPFs had positive returns. Additionally, returns above inflation were posted by 19 out of 27 funds operating in the mandatory
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inflation expectations. If prices are rising, while we are doing nothing, advocating that loans should remain affordable, banks would increasingly pass through expected high inflation
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October, interest rates and financial market yields continued to increase. However, households’ inflation expectations were decreasing. In addition to the continuing slowdown in consumer lending,
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inflation will start to decelerate only in spring, but this is simply the base effect of low inflation in 2022 H1. We predict that inflation
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in yields on 7Y+ OFZ. This implies that market participants are expecting inflation to fall over a long-term horizon. In October, OFZ yields grew by
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07.11.2023
rate will help bring inflation down to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and anchor it at 4% further on.
Inflation, inflation expectations and Bank
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inflation,* %
Inflation, % YoY
Expected inflation, %
Expected inflation, respondents with savings, %
Key rate, % per annum
* Month-on-month, seasonally
year, inflation may rise above the Bank of
Russia’s current forecast.
Table1. Inflation and its components Figure 1. Price rises corresponding to an inflation
into consideration when making
decisions on monetary policy to analyse and forecast inflation, identify the key
trends in economic development across Russia in general and