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observed.
The recurrence of these shocks implied that the evolution of the exchange rate becomes a central variable for
the dynamics of the contractual structure
1
= 1 + exp (
• e – log of exchange rate exchange
• e* – moving average log of exchange rate exchange
• exchange rate depreciation and gap are standardized, = = 1,
implications for policy.
Model
The key empirical findings:
Countries in which the exchange rate depreciates a lot in a
recession have a relatively high level
Bank of Russia.
The hysteresis effect 2 /7
May be related to
- Exchange rate expectations
- Balance sheet effects
- Network externalities
Notoriously difficult to model basing
El plan monetario
Non-financial private sector dollarization (FX demand & deposits) and the
exchange rate
4.000 90
3.000 80
2.000
70
1.000
947
29.03.2021
economy to countrywide factors, e.g. changes in global oil prices or exchange rate fluctuations. The extent of the response to a change in the
Inflation targeting Active inflation Liquidity Transition deadline Key rate Floating exchange
announced targeting management set introduced rate introduced Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Feb 2021
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