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Restricted 8 Gr 5: The evolution of the business cycle1 Inflation Credit-to-GDP gap Short-term interest rate Per cent Percentage points Per cent 9 8 8

ratio to the benchmark RMSE) Horizon (quarters) Time sample 1 2 4 8 All observation 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.02 Crisis only

0.6 AIPW AIPW -0.65*** FE regression FE regression -0.8 -0.8 Source: Alam and others (2018). Notes: The figure reports the cumulative

8.3 8.0 9.0 9.2 9.1 8.5 9.1 8.0 8.6 8.6 8.3 8.6 8.

0.311 0.330 0.570 0.502 Number of countries 8 8 8 8 Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05,

Main Branch of the Bank of Russia (68 Fontanka River embankment) 8:00 Registration 8:40 Opening Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor of the Bank

lending showed unsurprisingly faster growth of 1.2%, after staying at 0.8% in January, being a bit constrained by the holidays. The corporate portfolio

0.7 5.8 -1.4 -37.7 8.1 10.7 1.5 -1.4 -1.8 -11.8 -3.8 17.3 – non-food

reduced from 6% to 4%. The effective interest rate will be within 8.5%. No sectoral curbs on SME lending will be in place. Beginning

to see rates below 8% at a later stage? How much later? Is there still a chance to see rates below 8% as early as