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type of model specification. Instead of forecasting inflation levels, inflation surprises (the deviance between inflation level and inflation forecast) can be predicted. Phillips–curve dependence

Median Inflation Core inflation supply factors restrained inflation in individual Sources: Rosstat, Bank of Russia calculations. segments of the food market. A slowdown of inflation

Inflation in September significantly below forecast 14 October 2019 News Share VKontakte Telegram Макс Annual inflation decreased by 0.3 pp in September to equal

inflation slightly deviated downwards away from 4%. The Bank of Russia forecasts that the pursued monetary policy will hold annual inflation close to 4%. Inflation

Household inflation expectations reached 8.9% in September vs 9.1% in August. This corresponds to the inflation slowdown trend. Despite the decline, inflation expected

remains close to the level that corresponds to 4% annual inflation. This suggests that inflation will stabilise near 4% in the established monetary conditions as

goods and service price growth, Chart 1 inflation and core inflation seasonal drop in food prices. Annual inflation Per cent change vs the same month

appreciation. A similar slowdown in inflation was registered in the services market. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, inflation will come in at

an underlying inflation measure. Keywords: Underlying inflation, Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor model, Russia JEL classification: E31, E32, E52, C32 DISINFLATION AND RELIABILITY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION MEASURES

inflation expectations remained stable close to 4%. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, annual inflation will return to 4% in early 2020. Inflation