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inflation slightly deviated
downwards away from 4%. The Bank of Russia forecasts that the pursued monetary policy will hold
annual inflation close to 4%.
Inflation
422
30.09.2019
Household inflation expectations reached 8.9% in September vs 9.1% in August. This corresponds to the inflation slowdown trend. Despite the decline, inflation expected
423
20.09.2019
remains close to the level that corresponds to 4% annual inflation. This suggests that inflation will stabilise near 4% in the established monetary conditions as
goods and service price growth, Chart 1
inflation and core inflation
seasonal drop in food prices. Annual inflation
Per cent change vs the same month
425
12.09.2019
appreciation. A similar slowdown in inflation was registered in the services market.
According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, inflation will come in at
an underlying inflation
measure.
Keywords: Underlying inflation, Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor model, Russia
JEL classification: E31, E32, E52, C32
DISINFLATION AND RELIABILITY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION MEASURES
inflation expectations remained
stable close to 4%. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, annual inflation will return to
4% in early 2020.
Inflation
428
29.08.2019
Consumer inflation expectations moved down in August
29 August 2019
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In August, consumer inflation expectations lowered to 9.1%, to
June. Monthly inflation fluctuations are mostly due
to the volatility of fruit and vegetable prices. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, inflation
will
430
12.08.2019
annual inflation continues into July as growth in utility prices slows
12 August 2019
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In June 2019, annual inflation continued