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Russia since 2015 (trend inflation) may be categorised under this group of indicators. Underlying inflation published since 2015 (trend inflation) Inflation indicator cleared of all

registered in non-food purchases; this is associated with a rise in household inflation expectations amid the weakening in the ruble and the forthcoming VAT hike.

2014 Inflation targeting Active inflation Liquidity Transition deadline Key rate introduced Floating exchange announced targeting management set rate introduced communications Since Dec. 2017 Inflation targeting

8 3.6 Balance indicators of inflation (difference of shares of components with accelerating and decelerating inflation), % Annual inflation -44.5 -41.9 -35.1

in sales of non-food purchases occurred on the back of rising household inflation expectations, triggered by the weaker ruble and the forthcoming VAT increase. An

factors of inflation such as competition among producers and retailers, logistics development, and available food product storage facilities. These factors may cause inflation to deviate

of perceived inflation Figure 9. Household expectations of ruble ex- and household inflation expectations change rate movements Perceived inflation USD-ruble exch. rate, % MoM Inflation expectations

reserves (correspondent accounts) (de- 0.0 0.0 [-0.7; -0.2] Inflation expectations derived from OFZ-IN mand) rose considerably. However, the major part of

50% per annum in order to check inflation risks. I refer to the risks of mounting inflation and inflation expectations in response to exchange rate

inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast, as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets. Inflation dynamics. Annual inflation