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1681
18.05.2020
Price growth accelerates in April, driven by temporary factors
18 May 2020
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Annual inflation went up 0.6 pp to
an inflation
rate of 4%, % MoM
Source: Rosstat. Source: Rosstat, R&F Department estimates.
Figure 3. Seasonally adjusted inflation, % MoM Figure 4. Modified core inflation
Securities are the Bank of Russia’s investments in the achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank
debt securities of
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14.05.2020
market development.
Inflation slowed down in the course of the year, enabling the Bank of Russia to reduce its key rate; annual inflation totalled 3
agricultural output in April, which will continue
10 40 to limit food inflation.
5 20
0 0
-5 -20
Investment activity
-10 -40 March saw
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08.05.2020
temporary proinflationary factors in the near future. This is suggested by stabilising inflation expectations and weekly consumer price indexes, as well as a decline in
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08.05.2020
confirmed by data on inflation and inflation expectations. Inflation is still affected by one-off pro-inflationary factors, due to which annual inflation accelerated from 2.5
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07.05.2020
sales of household appliances, which was driven by a temporary rise in inflation expectations on the back of the weaker ruble. Annual growth rates in
seasonally adjusted, %
Line – annual inflation, % (rhs); thin line – 3MMA SAAR
Sources: Rosstat, Bank of Russia’s estimates
7
Inflation expectations
Inflation expectations of Replies of
in inflation 7.8
expectations of households and
businesses. 6
4
2.3
2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Observed inflation Expected inflation Annual inflation