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a fully-fledged
inflation targeting regime. Perhaps under the managed float, monetary policy was more
uncertain; monetary shocks dominated and produced high ERPT. Under inflation targeting,
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09.06.2020
cuts and subdued consumer demand.
After April’s acceleration to 3.1%, inflation slowed down to 3.0% in May. The strengthening of the ruble
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05.06.2020
We anticipate that inflation expectations will continue to trend downwards in summer, following the inflation path. What aspects may now suggest that inflation expectations are
be the one, which accounts only for the inflation of domestically
produced goods instead of CPI inflation. However, given that the model is estimated on
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average net yield of 8.2% p.a. — well above the annual inflation reading (3%). These figures are reported in the analytical commentary NPF Yields,
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22.05.2020
its inflation forecast for the year-end of about 3.8–4.8%. The recent two weeks recorded zero inflation. Do you confirm the inflation forecast
policy report 2. Inflation
16 No. 2 (30) · April 2020 and inflation expectations
In February 2020, annual inflation continued
INFLATION AND CORE INFLATION Chart 2.
range of banks. Given that accompanied by a weaker outflow of foreign
inflation will stabilise at a steadily low level, real currency deposits compared to
IN INFLATION DUE TO PRICE CHANGES BY GROUP Table 5
OF GOODS AND SERVICES, YEAR-TO-DATE
(PERCENTAGE POINTS)
Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation
was caused, inter alia, by the impact of local
INFLATION, CORE INFLATION, AND AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLATION* Chart 6
(GROWTH AS A PERCENTAGE OF CORRESPONDING MONTH