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Markets, information and analytical commentary 12.03.2020 6 Assessment of Underlying Inflation 12.03.2020 7 Consumer Price Dynamics, informational and analytical commentary 13.

barrel 64 55 50 50 Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 3.0 3.5-4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation, average for the year, as

Instruments are Inflation 2.5% Inflation 4.3% Inflation 3.0% Inflation targeting is “Floating rate and represented as a developed, the inflation targeting by

adjusted, % Line – annual inflation, % (rhs); thin line – 3MMA SAAR Sources: Rosstat, Bank of Russia’s estimates 5 Inflation expectations – households Jan MoM, Inflation observed and

of Russian securities the balance of payments, the reserve assets amid slower inflation and the expected easing increased by $15 billion in 2019 Q4 (2018

6.00 6.00 – Reuters survey (6.00) (6.00) 3. Implied inflation rate (OFZ-IN) (monthly average) January 2020 2.75 – OFZ-IN-52001 (until 16.08.

activity Imports slowed down somewhat as average annual Exports Changes in inventories inflation rose, largely on the back of the VAT Gross fixed capital formation

IN INFLATION DUE TO PRICE CHANGES BY GROUP Table 5 OF GOODS AND SERVICES, YEAR-TO-DATE (PERCENTAGE POINTS) Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation

inflation slowdown in Russia’s trading partners limits growth of import prices. Subdued demand continues to influence inflation, including external demand. In January, households’ inflation

Inflation dynamics. In January, annual inflation declined to 2.4%. Let me remind you that it was 3% by the end of 2019. The inflation