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Instruments are Inflation 4.3% Inflation 3.0% Inflation 3.7% Inflation targeting is “Floating rate and represented as a developed, the inflation targeting by

Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Truncation method Overall inflation Food Non-food Excluding the most volatile components CPI Services Inflation target Inflation target Source: Rosstat, R&F Department

adjusted, % Line – annual inflation, % (rhs); thin line – 3MMA SAAR Sources: Rosstat, Bank of Russia’s estimates 7 Inflation expectations – households Sep Oct Inflation observed and

2020 2021 2022 2023 Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 3.0 3.9-4.2 3.5-4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation, average for the

by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets. Inflation dynamics. Inflation is developing in line with the Bank of Russia’s forecast

factors we considered today. Firstly, inflation processes are generally evolving in line with our baseline scenario. We forecast that inflation will come in at 3.

foreign markets the volume of funds raised by the Ministry of and inflation acceleration, in August, market Finance at OFZ placement auctions. This factor participants

IN INFLATION DUE TO PRICE CHANGES BY GROUP Table 5 OF GOODS AND SERVICES, YEAR-TO-DATE (PERCENTAGE POINTS) Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation

опубликован в виде статьи в рецензируемом научном журнале: Styrin, K. (2019), “Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using Dynamic Model Averaging,” Russian Journal of Money and Finance,

Securities are the Bank of Russia’s investments in the achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank debt securities of