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annual inflation will return to the Bank of Russia’s target in the middle of 2022 and will remain close to 4% further on. Inflation

falls. The key measures of persistent inflationary processes (including trend inflation, modified core inflation, median inflation, seasonally adjusted price rises in food and non-food goods

BE INCLUDED IN BANK OF RUSSIA’S FORECAST In accordance with the inflation targeting monetary policy framework, the Bank of Russia makes its monetary policy

to enable individual credit institutions to offset monetary policy amid the accelerating inflation locally uneven liquidity distribution, as before. and the key rate hike by

for obligations of the Government of the Russian Federation, debt achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank obligations of other

in the amount of 5.2% p.a., which is above annual inflation (4.9%). Annual return on investments of pension savings before the payment

in the economy at a level that ensures the achievement of the inflation target in the medium term. 2 See V. Grishchenko, A. Morozov, E.

the analytical material Regional Economy: Commentaries by Bank of Russia Main Branches. Inflation remained high in March. Price movements were predominantly shaped by temporary proinflationary

for the inflation, Koenig (2003) shows, that while markup is a useful predictor of inflation with revised data it fails to predict inflation in real-time.

5 4 3 2 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Observed inflation Expected inflation Annual inflation Inflation expectations of households remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic