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15.04.2021
the analytical material Regional Economy: Commentaries by Bank of Russia Main Branches.
Inflation remained high in March. Price movements were predominantly shaped by temporary proinflationary
in the economy at a level that ensures the achievement
of the inflation target in the medium term.
2
See V. Grishchenko, A. Morozov, E.
for the inflation, Koenig (2003) shows,
that while markup is a useful predictor of inflation with revised data it fails to predict inflation
in real-time.
5
4
3
2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Observed inflation Expected inflation Annual inflation
Inflation expectations of households remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic
a faster acceleration of inflation recovery could spark off a faster acceleration
in major economies. This was reflected in the of inflation. Against this background,
C. Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the
Great Inflation // FRB of Richmond Working Paper. 2014. No.14-02.
28. Maliar L., Maliar
2904.
112 Деньги и Кредит декабрь 2020
Capolongo A., Pacella C. Forecasting Inflation in the Euro Area: Countries Matter! // Bank of Italy
Temi di Discussione
6
Banco Central de la Repblica Argentina
Dollarization in historical perspective Inflation regimes
Annual inflation rate
500%
El plan monetario
1981 1989
400%
1975
1946
USD exchange rate value.
• – Log nominal exchange rate USD/RUB
• – Oil price inflation
• – News sentiment index
Sentiment Index 8 /21
• Based on LDA text analysis
currency-USD)
Housing prices 5 /7
- What is the expected response of housing inflation to external shocks?
- Is responsiveness a sign of not just financial but