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inflation expectations and their
anchoring to the inflation target. Inflation expectations affect both inflation trends and
interest rates in the economy. The anchoring of inflation
there are no signs of a steady deceleration of inflation and a decrease in inflation expectations.
Inflation has been persistently deviating from the 4% target
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consumer demand. Inflation expectations of households and businesses are decreasing. This year’s inflation forecast has been lowered to 12-15%.
Inflation, households’ inflation expectations and
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expectations also declined, though remaining above the previous year’s readings.
Inflation, households’ inflation expectations and key rate
Source: Bank of Russia, Rosstat.
2
Macroeconomic
while non-financial organisations and individuals were net buyers.
Implied inflation.10 In October, average monthly implied inflation from OFZ-IN 52002 (2028)
edged up to 8.
given the situation for achieving
Foreign currency-denominated assets and precious metals the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank of Russia
mainly
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1% per annum), respectively.
All NPFs had positive returns. Additionally, returns above inflation were posted by 19 out of 27 funds operating in the mandatory
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inflation expectations. If prices are rising, while we are doing nothing, advocating that loans should remain affordable, banks would increasingly pass through expected high inflation
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October, interest rates and financial market yields continued to increase. However, households’ inflation expectations were decreasing. In addition to the continuing slowdown in consumer lending,
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inflation will start to decelerate only in spring, but this is simply the base effect of low inflation in 2022 H1. We predict that inflation