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are long-term values of the policy rate and inflation, and the ratio Pt 1 is reflective of inflation. If r 0 , monetary policy is inertial:

into consideration when making decisions on monetary policy to analyse and forecast inflation, identify the key trends in economic development across Russia in general and

carbon footprints. In the initial stress period, inflation and inflation expectations significantly increase due to (1) rising foreign inflation due to the carbon tax implemented

covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision. Among

core inflation from the expected level. This paper highlights that national inflation rates have been persistently higher than expected since 2021 Q2. Therefore, inflation forecasts

impulse components for all Russian regions. The effect of fiscal impulse on inflation in Russian regions is heterogeneous and negatively correlated with the level of

loans December 2023 7 The obtained estimates assume unchanged inflation expectations. A rise in households’ inflation expectations makes it more likely that households will request

annual inflation stood at 7.3%1 as of 29 January. Table 1. Inflation and its components Figure 1. Price rises corresponding to an inflation

the loan request probability in relation to the interest rate with given inflation expectations. It takes a significant change in interest rates for the interest

to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy. The return of inflation to target in 2024 and its further stabilisation close to 4% assume