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The Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 300 basis points to 11.00% per annum effective from 27 May 2022. The latest weekly data point to a significant slowdown in the current price growth rates. Inflationary pressure eases on the back of the ruble exchange rate dynamics as well as the noticeable decline in inflation expectations of households and businesses. In April annual inflation reached 17.8%, however, based on the estimate as of 20 May, it slowed down to 17.5%, decreasing faster than in the Bank of Russia’s April forecast.

Funds continue to flow into fixed-term ruble deposits while lending activity remains weak. This limits proinflationary risks and makes it necessary to ease monetary conditions.

External conditions for the Russian economy are still challenging, considerably constraining economic activity. Financial stability risks decreased somewhat, enabling a relaxation of some capital control measures.

Moving forward, in its key rate decision-making the Bank of Russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic transformation processes, as well as risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets, and holds open the prospect of key rate reduction at its upcoming meetings. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decrease to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024.

The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next rate review meeting on 10 June 2022. The Board decision press release is to be published at 13:30 Moscow time.


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