On 11 September 2026, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 14.00% per annum. The economy as a whole is growing at a moderate pace in 2026 Q3. Current price pressures have increased significantly in recent months. The Bank of Russia estimates that underlying price growth has accelerated to 5–6% in annualised terms, primarily due to the impact of a temporary reduction in production capacities in certain sectors. As these effects fade and aggregate demand grows moderately, underlying inflation will resume its decline.
The Bank of Russia will make further key rate decisions based on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations as well as the analysis of risks posed by domestic and external conditions. According to the baseline scenario, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 6.0–7.0% in 2026, return to 4.0% in 2027, and will stay on target further on.
In July, the current seasonally adjusted price growth equalled 11.6% in annualised terms compared to 5.3% on average in 2026 Q2. The similar indicator of core inflation rose to 7.0% from 4.6% on average in 2026 Q2. In recent months, price dynamics have been considerably affected by volatile components, including motor fuel, fruit and vegetables. The rise in motor fuel prices has also affected underlying inflation dynamics. The range of underlying inflation estimates was raised to 5–6% in annualised terms. As of 7 September 2026, annual inflation stood at 6.3%.
Inflation expectations of households, businesses, and financial market participants have changed diversely. Nevertheless, they remain elevated, which may impede a sustained slowdown in inflation.
According to high-frequency data, the economy is growing at a moderate pace in 2026 Q3. Growth in consumer demand is slowing but remains elevated. Investment activity continues to recover compared to the levels of early 2026.
The labour market tightness is gradually easing. Survey results indicate that labour shortages continue to decrease. Wage growth is slowing and gradually converging with labour productivity growth, although the gap between them remains significant. Unemployment is near historic lows but has risen slightly in recent months.
Monetary conditions are assessed as moderately tight. Interest rates have changed diversely in various segments of the financial market. Taking into consideration the dynamics of inflation expectations, the overall tightness of monetary conditions has decreased slightly in real terms. Non-price bank lending conditions are still tight.
Lending activity has been elevated in recent months, driven primarily by the corporate segment. The retail loan portfolio has been growing moderately. Households’ propensity to save has decreased slightly but remains high.
Proinflationary risks have increased and prevail over disinflationary ones on the medium-term horizon. Main proinflationary risks are associated with the supply-demand imbalances, driven by higher domestic demand and a longer contraction of production capacities in certain industries. Elevated inflation expectations may intensify the pass-through of costs to prices. Proinflationary risks associated with a long period of wage growth outpacing productivity growth as well as with a deterioration in the global economic outlook and rising global price pressures amid geopolitical tensions are still in place. Disinflationary risks involve a more significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The Bank of Russia’s July baseline scenario assumes a gradual decrease in the structural primary budget deficit to zero in 2029. Fiscal policy parameters, including the trajectory of returning to a zero structural balance, will be further detailed in the October forecast after the Government submits new medium-term budget projections to the State Duma. If these projections assume a higher structural primary budget deficit, a tighter monetary policy stance than stipulated in the baseline scenario may be required.
The Bank of Russia releases the Summary of the Key Rate Discussion on 23 September 2026.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors holds its next key rate meeting on 23 October 2026. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board decision and the medium-term forecast are to be published at 13.30 Moscow time.
The reference to the Press Service is mandatory if you intend to use this material.
11.09.2026 13.30.00