Gap between new and existing housing prices estimated at 9–18%
The Bank of Russia has designed an econometric model for estimating the difference in prices between the new and existing housing markets, taking into account the date of home construction, property class, apartment area, and a number of other parameters. According to the regulator’s calculations, by early 2026, the gap equalled 9%, excluding renovation costs related to resold new builds. With these costs included, the indicator rises to 18%.
Concurrently, according to Rosstat data on average prices in the new and existing housing markets in Russia as a whole, the gap reached 52% as of the end of 2026 Q1. This was associated with the fact that the quality of new housing is objectively better, while the calculation of the average existing home price includes not only newly built housing, but also older homes. Furthermore, the share of regions with more expensive housing (Moscow, St Petersburg, the Krasnodar Territory, etc.) is higher in the market of new apartment buildings, which additionally increases the estimated price gap. A more accurate estimate requires comparing prices for homes with similar characteristics and using model-based estimates.
The Bank of Russia’s analysis has confirmed that the regulator’s higher capital requirements for banks issuing mortgages with a down payment below 20% and direct restrictions on the issuance of such risky loans are justified and cover the risks of a decline in the value of housing under construction in case it is later sold in the existing housing market. To protect against other risks, the regulator and banks may set higher down payment requirements, if needed.
More details are available in the analytical note Estimating the Price Gap Between the New and Existing Housing Markets in Russia.