Impact of migration flows on the economic activity and labor market of Russia as a whole and regionally
Kudaeva M., Redozubov I.
This study presents an empirical assessment of the migration effects on macroeconomic indicators in Russia as a whole and separately for groups of regions that "attract" and "give" migrants. Using a structural vector auto-regression model with the short-term constraints, it was found that a sharp increase in the flow of migrants to the country and to the "attracting" regions has a significant positive effect on the economic activity. At the same time, the outflow of migrants from the "giving" regions leads to a slight increase in wages. The impact of migration for unemployment has not been identified. Thus, we have determined that migration flows of population are reflected in the indicators of economic activity and labor market of the country. In accordance with the transmission mechanism, changes in the output and wage are seen in the dynamics of inflation. The got results will help to understand the impact of migration and whether it should be taken into account in the monetary policy decisions.