Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2017 H2
According to statistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, will in Q3 and Q4 total $16 billion and $25 billion respectively.
Once intragroup payments* are deducted, which are very likely to be extended or refinanced, net payments in the quarters under study will total $12 billion and $23.6 billion respectively, essentially consistent with the same periods of previous years. Macrostatistics show that a fourth quarter (mainly December) is traditionally the time of the bulk of repayments, and experience suggests that a substantial proportion of these will be extended.
According to a BoR survey of major companies, the share of intragroup loans in total repayments of major borrowers is estimated at 46% for July, 16% for August, 60% for September, 0.2% for October, 29% for November and 26% for December 2017. Adjusted for intragroup funding, major corporations’ payments in 2017 Q3-4 are predicted to be fairly even and average about $1.5 billion a month, which is a third less than in the same period last year.
Schedule of external debt payments — 30 largest non-financial corporate borrowers, 2017 H2**
Indicators | 2017 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
July | August | September | October | November | December | |
Amounts payable, million rubles USA | 1,539 | 1,207 | 5,197 | 1,610 | 2,492 | 2,745 |
Net amounts payable, million rubles USA | 831 | 1,016 | 2,080 | 1,609 | 1,780 | 2,034 |
Share of intragroup funding | 46% | 16% | 60% | 0% | 29% | 26% |
* Intragroup payments are calculated for the 30 largest Russian corporate borrowers in the external market. |
** Q3 indicators are adjusted to recognise transaction specification data available from banks authorised to conduct foreign currency transactions between residents and non-residents. |
19 July 2017