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of annual inflation growth rate from average level in moving 25-month period (p.p.) Indicator Volatility DFM (frequency > 24 months) 0.2 DFM (‘monetary’ inflation

12. Contribution of separate factors in change of the DSR for Russia, p.p. year-on- year 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3

FORECASTING OF RUSSIAN GDP WITH A DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL REFERENCES 1. Antipa, P. & Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darn, O., 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison

global liquidity. European Journal of Political Economy 27, 520–533. 3. Banbula, P., Pietrzak, M., 2016. Early warning models of banking crises applicable to non-

0n 0n 0n t 1 Transition equation X wt , X t p t p 1 0n In 0n 0n A0 0 A0 n 0n 0n

and P. Disyatat (2015) “Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously.” BIS Working Papers No 525. 6. Borio, C. and P. Lowe

and study the short-run dynamics of real loans (deflated by GDP deflator P) by means of the error-correction model containing the error correction terms and

1,2 2,0 2,4 2,3 balance sheet total , b.p. of which: - 20 largest-asset credit institutions 1,0 1,0 1,5

000 ruble loans maturing in less than one month) reached 599.3% p.a. in the first quarter of 2017, 14.3 pp below the

28 July 2017, to keep the key rate unchanged at 9.00% p.a. and about interest rates on all Bank of Russia specialised refinancing