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temporary.
Inflation trends are expected to reverse in the middle of the year. Annualised monthly inflation will begin to go down, although annual inflation will
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reflects the monetary nature of inflation.
Annual inflation will plateau close to Q1 values until the middle of the year. Inflation forecast for the end
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mounted
on the back of temporary factors
Inflation (% YoY) and the Bank of Russia key rate (% p.a.)
Inflation had been evolving significantly above the
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and 7.3–8.3% p.a. in 2022. As inflation expectations lower and inflation edges down, the Bank of Russia will return the key
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and imports. Rising inflation is coupled with elevated inflation expectations, which involves risks of secondary effects for inflation.
The forecast of annual inflation for 2021
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reach its pre-pandemic levels already by late 2021.
2
Inflation forecast for
2021 has been increased
Inflation and the Bank of Russia, YoY
Annual price
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1
Inflation slowdown
is still overshooting the forecast
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In January, annual inflation declined to 2.4%. The inflation slowdown
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of Russia is following the inflation targeting regime. Its goal is to maintain price stability, that is, to keep annual inflation close to 4% on
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will consider its necessity
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Disinflationary pressure persists
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
Risks of inflation deviating downwards from the 4% target in 2021
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monetary policy is to support price stability, that is, sustainably low inflation. Low inflation ensures a stable purchasing power of the national currency. Price stability