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trend towards inflation slowdown. As of year-end, the to the Bank of Russia key rate in 2017. In the second average annualised inflation rate1 reached

conduct operations with foreign currency. rate of a respective currency, interest rates, inflation rate, derivatives’ prices, official statistical information, physical, Individual Indicators Highlights biological and

inflation due to price changes by group of goods and services, year-to-date (percentage points) Food1 Non-food goods Services Fruit and Inflation for the Core inflation

spread DS 3 Credit spread CS 3 Monetary policy Reaction to inflation 0.6 Inflation target trg 5 Reaction to unemployment 0.5 Unemployment target

Median estimates for observed and Figure 6. Inflation rate expected in three years expected inflation Observed inflation Expected inflation 30 26 22 18 14 10

customers will have to further adjust to an environment of sustainably low inflation and real positive interest rates. Banks will face new fintech-related challenges. A

5%. Households’ final consumption expenditures increase gradually without posing any risks for inflation. Retail trade turnover registered accelerated growth in June. The 2018 FIFA World

affect inflation expectations and how the external conditions will develop. In making its key rate decisions the Bank of Russia will assess inflation risks, inflation

achieved mainly due to stable macroeconomic situation (recovery of economic growth, low inflation, reduction of the budget deficit, low debt burden of the budget) and

macroeconomic models comprising a small number of macroeconomic variables, such as output, inflation, interest rate, and asset prices. They generally assume that the probability of