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inflation expectations continued to decrease, while remaining elevated. Business price expectations slightly lowered. Annual inflation slowdown paves the way for a future decline in inflation

63 55 50 50 Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 4.3 3.2-3.7 3.5-4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation, average for the

factors in inflation deceleration. Overall, changes in the trend inflation estimates imply that inflationary pressure continues on a level close to the inflation target. Pro-inflationary

which the corresponding rise in demand for foreign is explained by slower inflation and weak currency in the FX swap segment. economic activity. THE EXPECTED

prices, a subsequent depreciation of the rouble with a corresponding increase in inflation. EFFECTS OF TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS ON THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY OCTOBER 2019

and constitutes an underlying asset. rate of a respective currency, interest rates, inflation rate, derivatives’ prices, official statistical information, physical, Table 3.5 biological and

works that apply a similar methodology for macroeconomic problems. Jochmann (2015) models inflation using hierarchical Dirichlet processes, and Song (2014) concentrates on real interest rates.

in inflation due to price changes by group Table 5 of goods and services, year-to-date (percentage points) Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation

Dec. 2018 Inflation targeting is communications “Floating rate and Instruments are represented as a Inflation below 4% Inflation 4.3% developed, the inflation targeting by

grow. The above Sources: Rosstat, Bank of Russia calculations. factors restrained food inflation in August.4 Consumer goods Chart 5 As compared to the previous