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have declined. Household and business inflation expectations have abated. In these circumstances, there is a risk that in 2021 inflation might significantly deviate downwards from

Securities are the Bank of Russia’s investments in the achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank debt securities of

IN INFLATION DUE TO PRICE CHANGES BY GROUP Table 5 OF GOODS AND SERVICES, YEAR-TO-DATE (PERCENTAGE POINTS) Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation

growth. Inflation was 3% as of the end of 2019, and slightly decreased even more in the first months of this year. Three-year inflation averaged

come will likely see a temporary acceleration in annual inflation, given the low pace of inflation in the second half of 2019. As a result,

a fully-fledged inflation targeting regime. Perhaps under the managed float, monetary policy was more uncertain; monetary shocks dominated and produced high ERPT. Under inflation targeting,

cuts and subdued consumer demand. After April’s acceleration to 3.1%, inflation slowed down to 3.0% in May. The strengthening of the ruble

We anticipate that inflation expectations will continue to trend downwards in summer, following the inflation path. What aspects may now suggest that inflation expectations are

be the one, which accounts only for the inflation of domestically produced goods instead of CPI inflation. However, given that the model is estimated on

average net yield of 8.2% p.a. — well above the annual inflation reading (3%). These figures are reported in the analytical commentary NPF Yields,