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corresponding to an inflation rate of 4% in annualised terms (Figure 2), driving annual inflation further up to 5.67%. Annual inflation will likely reach

are papers on using this approach to forecast inflation. For instance, Styrin (2019) evaluates the accuracy of inflation forecasting based on dynamic model averaging (DMA

Securities are the Bank of Russia’s investments in the achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank debt securities of

the monitored enterprises reported an increase in output to pre-pandemic levels. Annual inflation kept rising in February, driven by the further growth of consumer demand

industries still have their output significantly below these levels. Demand-side pressure containing inflation is gradually weakening, while a range of segments are facing an acceleration

Chart 2.7). Inflation sped up as well without Median Core inflation taking into account specific spikes in prices (for Underlying inflation Inflation Sources: Rosstat,

Instruments are Inflation 4.3% Inflation 3.0% Inflation 5.2% Inflation targeting is “Floating rate and represented as a developed, the inflation targeting by

Key rate expectations. In January, amid The pandemic and related restrictions faster inflation and increased volatility in intensified the volatility of liquidity factors. This financial

5 1. Inflation Annual inflation accelerated to 4.9% in December, reaching an estimated 5.1% in mid- January. The leading indicators of inflation, including

5 4 3 2 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Observed inflation Expected inflation Annual inflation Inflation expectations of households have abated; however, they still remain