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a fully-fledged
inflation targeting regime. Perhaps under the managed float, monetary policy was more
uncertain; monetary shocks dominated and produced high ERPT. Under inflation targeting,
1502
05.06.2020
We anticipate that inflation expectations will continue to trend downwards in summer, following the inflation path. What aspects may now suggest that inflation expectations are
1503
25.05.2020
average net yield of 8.2% p.a. — well above the annual inflation reading (3%). These figures are reported in the analytical commentary NPF Yields,
be the one, which accounts only for the inflation of domestically
produced goods instead of CPI inflation. However, given that the model is estimated on
1505
22.05.2020
its inflation forecast for the year-end of about 3.8–4.8%. The recent two weeks recorded zero inflation. Do you confirm the inflation forecast
policy report 2. Inflation
16 No. 2 (30) · April 2020 and inflation expectations
In February 2020, annual inflation continued
INFLATION AND CORE INFLATION Chart 2.
range of banks. Given that accompanied by a weaker outflow of foreign
inflation will stabilise at a steadily low level, real currency deposits compared to
IN INFLATION DUE TO PRICE CHANGES BY GROUP Table 5
OF GOODS AND SERVICES, YEAR-TO-DATE
(PERCENTAGE POINTS)
Food1 Non-food Services Fruit Inflation for Core inflation
1509
18.05.2020
Price growth accelerates in April, driven by temporary factors
18 May 2020
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Annual inflation went up 0.6 pp to
an inflation
rate of 4%, % MoM
Source: Rosstat. Source: Rosstat, R&F Department estimates.
Figure 3. Seasonally adjusted inflation, % MoM Figure 4. Modified core inflation