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1451
29.06.2021
of a mechanism changing inflation expectations through new data on actual inflation and thus provide a realistic representation of actual inflation expectations.
The new issue
1
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Observed inflation Expected inflation Annual inflation
During the recent months, inflation expectations of households have remained close to
the accel-
markets
eration of inflation. Currently, investors consid-
Federal government bonds. The OFZ yield er the acceleration in inflation as a temporary
curve rose
1454
22.06.2021
the model does not improve the forecast quality: the quality of the inflation forecast remains the same and the quality of the GDP forecast worsens.
pdf
2 Methodology for CPI Seasonal Adjustment March 2020
underlying inflation estimates and modified core inflation estimates. These indicators are es-
sential for the Bank
stable inflation components. This will shape an even flatter
inflation deceleration trajectory, hampering an extensive scaling down of inflation expectations.
1.1. Annual inflation slowdown
for
obligations of the Government of the Russian Federation, debt achieving the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank
obligations of other
1458
15.06.2021
low inflation, specifically 3% as of the beginning of the year. Furthermore, the average rate over the four years after we had switched to inflation
1459
15.06.2021
15 June 2021
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In May 2021, annual inflation increased to 6.0%.
The growth rates in consumer prices (seasonally adjusted
на ежемесячной основе16 . Однако в данной работе используется
показатель базовой инфляции (core inflation), который также рассчитывается
Росстатом и охватывает большинство наименований (415 позиций или 70