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Average core inflation indicators USD exch. rate to the ruble (right axis) CPI Goods heavily dependent on exch. rate movements Inflation target Trend inflation Goods

solving and estimating non-linear models. 9 We exclude the inflation target shock from the model and inflation expectations from the observed variables to avoid the

include inflation expectations that stay elevated although the current inflation rate has remained decreased during several months already. Generally, inflation expectations follow the actual inflation

monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024. Inflation movements. In November, the

situation for achieving Credits and deposits include credits, deposits, and repo the inflation target. The key rate is set by the Bank of Russia funds

and Far Eastern seaports. Some industries demonstrated higher demand for manpower. Annual inflation continued to edge down due to moderate consumer demand and expanding supply

economy, and growing consumer confidence, fluctuations in inflation may emerge. The monetary policy stance aims to return inflation to 4% in 2024. More details are

bp from the beginning of the year) on the back of lower inflation expectations and the key rate cut by the Bank of Russia. The

difference of the risk scenario this year is that it assumes high inflation worldwide and relatively high interest rates. Over the recent decade, markets have

inflation, influences short-term money market rates; while lower ones stimulate them. In addition short-term rates influence long-term rates and to monetary policy and demand, inflation