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hold near 4% thereafter
2
Inflation expectations remain elevated
Household’s inflation expectations, observed inflation and inflation, YoY
Households’ inflation expectations fell to 9.1
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upcoming meetings
1
Inflation
is close to 4%
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In September, annual inflation stood at 3.7%. Inflation processes are
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1
Inflation slowdown
is still overshooting the forecast
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In January, annual inflation declined to 2.4%. The inflation slowdown
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Elevated inflationary pressure is becoming increasingly persistent
Inflation (% YoY) and the Bank of Russia key rate (% p.a.)
Inflation is evolving appreciably above the October
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inflation will be returning to around 4%
2
Household inflation expectations decline but stay above the 2018 lows
Household inflation expectations and inflation, YoY
Inflation
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temporary.
Inflation trends are expected to reverse in the middle of the year. Annualised monthly inflation will begin to go down, although annual inflation will
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reflects the monetary nature of inflation.
Annual inflation will plateau close to Q1 values until the middle of the year. Inflation forecast for the end
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mounted
on the back of temporary factors
Inflation (% YoY) and the Bank of Russia key rate (% p.a.)
Inflation had been evolving significantly above the
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and 7.3–8.3% p.a. in 2022. As inflation expectations lower and inflation edges down, the Bank of Russia will return the key
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and imports. Rising inflation is coupled with elevated inflation expectations, which involves risks of secondary effects for inflation.
The forecast of annual inflation for 2021