Annual inflation slows down to 5.53% in April

The monthly growth of consumer prices in general (seasonally adjusted) also slowed down albeit remains significantly above 4% in annual terms. The slowdown was registered mainly for the growth rate of prices for goods and services that had been rising in the previous months under the influence of non-monetary factors.

Among them are meat products, prices for which accelerated due to the worsening epizootic situation, as well as foreign travel and transportation services where price dynamics remain volatile, including due to the unstable epidemic situation in the world.

At the same time, the monthly growth of non-food prices in the market segment continued to increase, which reflected the recovery of demand in the context of high cost-side pressure.

According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, inflation will stand at 4.7–5.2% in 2021. As the recovery phase of economic growth completes, monetary policy will become neutral. In the absence of additional proinflationary shocks, this will let annual inflation return to the Bank of Russia’s target by mid-2022 and stay close to 4% further on. More details are available in the new issue of Consumer Price Dynamics, an information and analytical commentary.