Economic activity in October suggests gradual transition to growth

Economic activity in October generally demonstrated positive dynamics along with evidence for a gradual transition towards moderate growth. This conclusion is stated in ‘Talking Trends No. 12’, a bulletin issued by the Bank of Russia’s Research and Forecasting Department.

Authors point out likely first signs of improvement in economic activity in terms of its sustainability. Signs of recovery in investment-oriented industries are observed. Growth in real wages and investment imports continues. Current GDP nowcast assumes a slow but positive growth in 2016Q4.

Inflation has stabilized in accordance with Bank of Russia’s official forecast under baseline scenario (5,5%-6,0% by the end of 2016) and is gradually approaching the 4% target set for 2017. However, price growth still remains on a high level.

The findings and recommendations expressed in the bulletin do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Bank of Russia.