Monitoring sectoral financial flows: recovery in economic activity is possible
The inflows dynamic points to a possible increase of economic activity in late April — early May. However, its level is still low due to the coronavirus-related curbs currently in place, notes the fourth volume of Monitoring Sectoral Financial Flows, a weekly Bank of Russia review.
The last two weeks were shorter because of the May holidays, therefore average daily payments in these weeks might differ significantly from the volumes seen in normal weeks. Thus, incoming payments of all sectors were highly volatile in the fifth and sixth weeks due to both one-off factors and a shift in the seasonal patterns as compared to the previous year.
The coming week will provide more information needed to assess changes in economic activity. The end of non-working days starting from 12 May and the gradual (but uneven across the regions) easing of restrictive measures might promote the recovery of economic activity after the May holidays.
The methodology for calculations is being refined. Therefore, estimates, including retrospective ones, may be subject to further adjustments.
