Q4 exports continue to shrink on the back of commodity prices, import growth accelerates
The current account surplus fell in 2019 Q4 against the same period in 2018, largely as the trade balance surplus declined. These are the findings of the quarterly issue of the information and analytical commentary ‘Balance of Payments of Russia’.1
Exports continued to decline as world prices for energy commodities and some metals remained below the previous year’s level amid the subdued growth of the global economy. The appreciation of the ruble and the quicker growth of the Russian economy in 2019 H2 accelerated the increase in imports.
Non-residents showed stronger interest in Russian sovereign debt in 2019 Q4 amid an inflation slowdown and the expected easing of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy.
Net lending by Russia’s private sector to the rest of the world decelerated significantly compared with 2018 Q4: the decline was registered both in purchases of foreign assets and redemption of external liabilities.
Growth of international reserves due to transactions recorded in the balance of payments is still supported by fiscal rule-based foreign currency purchases.
1 The commentary shows preliminary estimates of the balance of payments indicators in 2019 Q4 and the actual data on international reserves.