Summary of the Key Rate Discussion released
The publication covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and the key rate decision.
The main topic of discussion was a considerable intensification of inflationary pressures in June–July. According to the participants, underlying price growth accelerated from 4–5% to 5–6% in annualised terms.
The economy continued to grow at a moderate pace. Domestic demand remained strong. Consumption was driven by a rise in household incomes. Consumers front-loaded some purchases, anticipating further price increases. Investment activity was recovering. Fiscal policy continued to make a substantial contribution to domestic demand growth.
Further inflation dynamics will largely depend on the situation in the fuel market, which is assumed to be gradually normalising in the baseline scenario. The monetary policy pursued will moderate the increase in domestic demand. Together, the above factors are set to alleviate inflationary pressures.
Following the discussion, the Board of Directors kept the key rate at 14.00% per annum.
According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will be 6.0–7.0% in 2026, return to 4.0% in 2027, and stay at the target further on.